Since the Premier League was reduced from 22 to 20 teams beginning with the 1995/1996 campaign, each season consists of 38 games, with a theoretical possible point total of 114 (a perfect season without any ties or losses). After averaging all of the title winners’ point totals over the last 16 seasons (since 1995/96), the average top finish is 85 points. For clubs hoping to qualify for the Champions League, the average 4th place finisher had a point score of 67.
Obviously, not every season is the same, and these numbers can occasionally be deceptive. For example, the highest point total in the modern EPL era was achieved by Chelsea during their 04/05 run, where they earned a whopping 95 points. Contrarily, Manchester United won the 96/97 title with a mere 75 points. Despite the 20 point difference between these two seasons, the law of averages does provide a clear benchmark and projected path for both fans and teams to follow.
By subtracting points, -3 for a loss, and -2 for a tie, fans can gain a better perspective of how well their teams are doing. By thinking in terms of points lost instead of gained, seasonal progress (or lack thereof) becomes much clearer. Here’s how the numbers get crunched:
85 (the average league title) is 29 points less than the perfect 114, so for all intents and purposes, a -29 is a goal most teams should be shooting for in order to be considered contenders for the title, and a -47 (67 total points) is near where the final Champions League qualifying spot will be.
By the halfway point of the season, teams will want to be around -15, and if you divide the season into fourths, teams will NOT want to have more than -7 points per every ten games played. For those teams who are realistically shooting for a top-four finish, the fourth spot requires no greater than a -12 drop for every ten games played. For teams like Arsenal who are already at -11 after just five games, their title chances are nearly mathematically impossible, and Gunner fans have every right to be upset.
Still confused? To summarize, the EPL is much easier to follow in terms of subtracting points (-3 for a loss; -2 for a tie), with -29 (the average points lost by the title winners) being the goal and -47 (the average lost for the fourth place) being the cut-off point.
Fans of every sport throughout the world have always had a love/hate relationship with stats. While these numbers may seem superficial—they can’t factor in injuries, big signings, and unlucky bounces—years of data have provided a pretty reliable precedent to follow for the future.
The numbers also prove that certain results have greater risks and rewards. For example, the winners of the league have had a total average of 8 draws and only 4 losses. While we all know that it’s much better to draw than it is to lose, four title winners have actually had more than 10 draws, but no team won the league with more than 6 losses. The moral of the story: it’s not necessarily bad to bunker down and park the bus in front of the goal once in a while—especially during away games.
These stats make sense when you consider that four ties equal -8, while four losses equals -12, the -4 point difference equating to more than the point total of one loss (-3). So the next time your favorite team subs out their top goal scorers and replaces them with defensive halfbacks, don’t start calling for the manager’s head—losing a game is much worse than preserving a draw.
What do these numbers mean for this season with five games already in hand? Unfortunately for Arsenal, it means that with three losses already, they will probably not even finish in the top four. For Tottenham (-9) and Liverpool (-8), they’re probably now fighting for a top-four finish at best. Meanwhile, Chelsea (-5) is maintaining a top-four pace, while Manchester City (-2) is still maintaining the title pace alongside of Manchester United (-0). But these are just numbers: -29 for a title; -47 for the fourth spot; no team winning a title with more than 6 losses...and numbers have a tendency to change in a hurry.
Obviously, not every season is the same, and these numbers can occasionally be deceptive. For example, the highest point total in the modern EPL era was achieved by Chelsea during their 04/05 run, where they earned a whopping 95 points. Contrarily, Manchester United won the 96/97 title with a mere 75 points. Despite the 20 point difference between these two seasons, the law of averages does provide a clear benchmark and projected path for both fans and teams to follow.
By subtracting points, -3 for a loss, and -2 for a tie, fans can gain a better perspective of how well their teams are doing. By thinking in terms of points lost instead of gained, seasonal progress (or lack thereof) becomes much clearer. Here’s how the numbers get crunched:
85 (the average league title) is 29 points less than the perfect 114, so for all intents and purposes, a -29 is a goal most teams should be shooting for in order to be considered contenders for the title, and a -47 (67 total points) is near where the final Champions League qualifying spot will be.
By the halfway point of the season, teams will want to be around -15, and if you divide the season into fourths, teams will NOT want to have more than -7 points per every ten games played. For those teams who are realistically shooting for a top-four finish, the fourth spot requires no greater than a -12 drop for every ten games played. For teams like Arsenal who are already at -11 after just five games, their title chances are nearly mathematically impossible, and Gunner fans have every right to be upset.
Still confused? To summarize, the EPL is much easier to follow in terms of subtracting points (-3 for a loss; -2 for a tie), with -29 (the average points lost by the title winners) being the goal and -47 (the average lost for the fourth place) being the cut-off point.
Fans of every sport throughout the world have always had a love/hate relationship with stats. While these numbers may seem superficial—they can’t factor in injuries, big signings, and unlucky bounces—years of data have provided a pretty reliable precedent to follow for the future.
The numbers also prove that certain results have greater risks and rewards. For example, the winners of the league have had a total average of 8 draws and only 4 losses. While we all know that it’s much better to draw than it is to lose, four title winners have actually had more than 10 draws, but no team won the league with more than 6 losses. The moral of the story: it’s not necessarily bad to bunker down and park the bus in front of the goal once in a while—especially during away games.
These stats make sense when you consider that four ties equal -8, while four losses equals -12, the -4 point difference equating to more than the point total of one loss (-3). So the next time your favorite team subs out their top goal scorers and replaces them with defensive halfbacks, don’t start calling for the manager’s head—losing a game is much worse than preserving a draw.
What do these numbers mean for this season with five games already in hand? Unfortunately for Arsenal, it means that with three losses already, they will probably not even finish in the top four. For Tottenham (-9) and Liverpool (-8), they’re probably now fighting for a top-four finish at best. Meanwhile, Chelsea (-5) is maintaining a top-four pace, while Manchester City (-2) is still maintaining the title pace alongside of Manchester United (-0). But these are just numbers: -29 for a title; -47 for the fourth spot; no team winning a title with more than 6 losses...and numbers have a tendency to change in a hurry.
No comments:
Post a Comment